CAGR of 37%! CdTe Module Capacity Accelerates Towards 100 GW

Source: Beijing Renhe Thai Fund Management Co., Ltd.

In a forward-looking paper published in the journal Joule, a team of US researchers outlined the technical and supply chain efforts required to achieve a global annual production capacity of 100 gigawatts (GW) for cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaics by 2030. Researchers from the DOE CdTe Accelerator Consortium—representing academia, industry, and research institutions—published this perspective in Joule, exploring the prospects for scaling global CdTe PV manufacturing capacity to 100 GW per year by 2030

"While CdTe PV is already performing well in the market, our paper shows that there is significant room for growth. Our work points the way toward future performance improvements and market expansion," said Michael Heben, a corresponding author of the paper.

The analysis, titled "100 GWdc Roadmap: Science and Supply Chain Challenges for Cadmium Telluride Photovoltaics,"evaluates supply chain and technology developments. It also considers policy impacts and recent growth rates in CdTe manufacturing capacity to form its outlook.

The paper notes that CdTe deployment has seen "disproportionate growth in the US and US utility-scale markets due to a combination of policy and technology." It further states that "thanks to advances in research, development, and manufacturing, the cost and performance of CdTe modules have continued to improve." Additionally, global total manufacturing capacity for CdTe PV has been growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% since 2017. The researchers' projections suggest that "achieving an annual production capacity of 100 GWdc by 2030 should be possible."

The study further confirms that the supply of tellurium, a byproduct of mining, is not expected to be a limiting factor for scaling CdTe production. The researchers noted that First Solar, a US module manufacturer, has already announced capacity expansion plans for 2026 that are 25% higher than earlier predicted capacity limits.

"In the past, the incentive to capture tellurium was limited. There is a common misconception that because tellurium production is low today, it constitutes a fundamental limitation. As tellurium production scales up, we can also significantly scale up CdTe production through device improvements, providing a longer runway for its development," said corresponding author Matthew Reese.

Regarding the ability to compete with conventional silicon-based products in the utility-scale sector, the study highlights CdTe's bankability, reliability, predictability, and superior performance in hot and humid climates, while also emphasizing the significant potential for device R&D.

Heben added regarding research aimed at improving module power conversion efficiency, reducing tellurium usage, and enhancing bifacial capabilities: "The areas we highlight will further strengthen the competitiveness of CdTe as efficiency gains are realized in the future." The research also emphasizes that the CdTe manufacturing process "leverages a domestic supply chain," making it "less sensitive to import restrictions while contributing to national energy security." Participants in the study came from the University of Toledo, the US Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Missouri University of Science and Technology, Colorado State University, Sivananthan Laboratories, and First Solar.

Looking ahead, fundamental and applied research aimed at enhancing the performance of manufacturable CdTe devices and modules is underway under the framework of the CdTe Accelerator Consortium, funded by the US Department of Energy.